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Hedge Bet Calculator

Computes the stake to place on the opposite outcome so that the profit is the same whether the original bet or the hedge wins, and the profit (or loss) that this locks in.

When to use

You hold a bet whose odds have shortened (a futures ticket or a live bet) and want to know how much to stake on the other side to lock in an equal result either way.

Do not use when: You are placing fresh bets on all outcomes at the best available prices (use arbitrage-bet), or you want to hedge for a break-even instead of an equal profit. Mathematics only; not gambling advice.

Formula

hedge_stake = original_stake × original_decimal_odds / hedge_decimal_odds; guaranteed_profit = original_stake × original_decimal_odds − original_stake − hedge_stake; return_on_total_outlay_percent = guaranteed_profit / (original_stake + hedge_stake) × 100

Equal-profit hedge for a two-outcome market: the hedge is sized so that both outcomes return the same total. In three-way markets the hedge price must cover every outcome other than the original selection (e.g. a lay or double-chance price). Probability mathematics only; not gambling advice.

Inputs

Parameter	Type	Required	Description
`original_stake`	number	yes	Amount staked on the original bet. Range: > 0, ≤ 1000000000
`original_decimal_odds`	number	yes	Decimal odds of the original bet when it was placed. Range: > 1, ≤ 1000000
`hedge_decimal_odds`	number	yes	Decimal odds now offered on the opposite outcome (the original bet losing). Range: > 1, ≤ 1000000

Outputs

Output	Type	Unit	Description
`hedge_stake`	number		Stake on the opposite outcome that equalises the profit: original_stake × original_decimal_odds / hedge_decimal_odds.
`guaranteed_profit`	number		Profit locked in whichever outcome wins (negative = locked-in loss).
`profit_if_original_wins`	number		original_payout − original_stake − hedge_stake.
`profit_if_hedge_wins`	number		hedge_stake × hedge_decimal_odds − hedge_stake − original_stake (equal to the previous value by construction).
`return_on_total_outlay_percent`	number	%	guaranteed_profit / (original_stake + hedge_stake) × 100.
`original_payout`	number		original_stake × original_decimal_odds.
`total_outlay`	number		original_stake + hedge_stake.
`combined_implied_probability_percent`	number	%	100/original_odds + 100/hedge_odds; below 100 % the hedge locks in a profit, above 100 % a loss.

Example

100 at 5.00, hedge now 1.50: {"original_stake":100,"original_decimal_odds":5,"hedge_decimal_odds":1.5} → {"hedge_stake":333.33,"guaranteed_profit":66.67,"profit_if_original_wins":66.67,"profit_if_hedge_wins":66.67,"return_on_total_outlay_percent":15.38,"original_payout":500}

100 at 1.80, hedge at 1.80 (locks in a loss): {"original_stake":100,"original_decimal_odds":1.8,"hedge_decimal_odds":1.8} → {"hedge_stake":100,"guaranteed_profit":-20,"return_on_total_outlay_percent":-10,"combined_implied_probability_percent":111.11}

GET https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculate/hedge-bet?original_stake=100&original_decimal_odds=5&hedge_decimal_odds=1.5

Machine access

API: GET https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculate/hedge-bet (query parameters) or POST with a JSON body {"inputs": {...}}
Schema: https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculators/hedge-bet · Markdown: https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/hedge-bet.md · JSON definition: https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/hedge-bet.json
MCP: server https://tttkmbb.com/mcp, tool run_calculator with calculator_id="hedge-bet"
OpenAPI operationId: calculate_hedge_bet
Freshness: static. Authentication: none. Rate limit: fair use (see rate limits).

Sources

Arbitrage betting (Wikipedia) (reference)
Odds – moneyline, decimal and fractional odds and implied probability (Wikipedia) (reference)

FAQ

When does hedging lock in a profit?

When 1/original_odds + 1/hedge_odds is below 1, i.e. the combined implied probability is under 100 %. That happens when the original price has shortened enough since the bet was placed.

What if I only want to get my stake back?

Stake original_stake / (hedge_decimal_odds − 1) on the other side instead; this calculator sizes the hedge for equal profit on both outcomes, not for break-even.

Related calculators

Arbitrage Betting Calculator — Same arithmetic for fresh stakes across all outcomes of a market.
Odds Converter — Convert American or fractional prices to the decimal odds used here.
ROI Calculator — Return on the total amount staked.