# Hedge Bet Calculator

> Computes the stake to place on the opposite outcome so that the profit is the same whether the original bet or the hedge wins, and the profit (or loss) that this locks in.

- Calculator id: `hedge-bet` · Category: Games & Betting Math (`gaming`) · Tool name: `calculate_hedge_bet`
- Canonical page: https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/hedge-bet · This document: https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/hedge-bet.md · JSON definition: https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/hedge-bet.json

## Purpose

Computes the stake to place on the opposite outcome so that the profit is the same whether the original bet or the hedge wins, and the profit (or loss) that this locks in.

**Use when:** You hold a bet whose odds have shortened (a futures ticket or a live bet) and want to know how much to stake on the other side to lock in an equal result either way.

**Do not use when:** You are placing fresh bets on all outcomes at the best available prices (use arbitrage-bet), or you want to hedge for a break-even instead of an equal profit. Mathematics only; not gambling advice.

## Input

| Parameter | Type | Unit | Required | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `original_stake` | number |  | required | Amount staked on the original bet. (> 0, max 1000000000) |
| `original_decimal_odds` | number |  | required | Decimal odds of the original bet when it was placed. (> 1, max 1000000) |
| `hedge_decimal_odds` | number |  | required | Decimal odds now offered on the opposite outcome (the original bet losing). (> 1, max 1000000) |

## Output

| Field | Type | Unit | Description |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| `hedge_stake` | number |  | Stake on the opposite outcome that equalises the profit: original_stake × original_decimal_odds / hedge_decimal_odds. |
| `guaranteed_profit` | number |  | Profit locked in whichever outcome wins (negative = locked-in loss). |
| `profit_if_original_wins` | number |  | original_payout − original_stake − hedge_stake. |
| `profit_if_hedge_wins` | number |  | hedge_stake × hedge_decimal_odds − hedge_stake − original_stake (equal to the previous value by construction). |
| `return_on_total_outlay_percent` | number | % | guaranteed_profit / (original_stake + hedge_stake) × 100. |
| `original_payout` | number |  | original_stake × original_decimal_odds. |
| `total_outlay` | number |  | original_stake + hedge_stake. |
| `combined_implied_probability_percent` | number | % | 100/original_odds + 100/hedge_odds; below 100 % the hedge locks in a profit, above 100 % a loss. |

## Formula

`hedge_stake = original_stake × original_decimal_odds / hedge_decimal_odds; guaranteed_profit = original_stake × original_decimal_odds − original_stake − hedge_stake; return_on_total_outlay_percent = guaranteed_profit / (original_stake + hedge_stake) × 100`

Equal-profit hedge for a two-outcome market: the hedge is sized so that both outcomes return the same total. In three-way markets the hedge price must cover every outcome other than the original selection (e.g. a lay or double-chance price). Probability mathematics only; not gambling advice.

## Data Sources

- Arbitrage betting (Wikipedia) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage_betting (reference, retrieved 2026-09-24)
- Odds – moneyline, decimal and fractional odds and implied probability (Wikipedia) — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odds (reference, retrieved 2026-09-24)

Data freshness: `static`. Deterministic formula with fixed constants; results never go stale. Inputs supplied by the caller determine the output.

## API

- `GET https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculate/hedge-bet?original_stake=…&original_decimal_odds=…&hedge_decimal_odds=…`
- `POST https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculate/hedge-bet` with JSON body `{"inputs": {…}}`
- Response: unified envelope (`success`, `request`, `result.values`, `result.units`, `sources`, `freshness`, `timestamp`, `next_actions`, `links`); see https://tttkmbb.com/docs/response-format.md
- Schema: https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculators/hedge-bet · OpenAPI operationId `calculate_hedge_bet` in https://tttkmbb.com/openapi.json
- Authentication: none. Rate limit: fair use, see https://tttkmbb.com/docs/rate-limits.md.

## MCP

- Server: `https://tttkmbb.com/mcp` (Streamable HTTP, JSON-RPC 2.0, no auth)
- Tool:  `run_calculator` with `{"calculator_id": "hedge-bet", "inputs": {…}}`

## Example

- 100 at 5.00, hedge now 1.50: inputs `{"original_stake":100,"original_decimal_odds":5,"hedge_decimal_odds":1.5}` → `{"hedge_stake":333.33,"guaranteed_profit":66.67,"profit_if_original_wins":66.67,"profit_if_hedge_wins":66.67,"return_on_total_outlay_percent":15.38,"original_payout":500}`
- 100 at 1.80, hedge at 1.80 (locks in a loss): inputs `{"original_stake":100,"original_decimal_odds":1.8,"hedge_decimal_odds":1.8}` → `{"hedge_stake":100,"guaranteed_profit":-20,"return_on_total_outlay_percent":-10,"combined_implied_probability_percent":111.11}`

```
GET https://tttkmbb.com/api/v1/calculate/hedge-bet?original_stake=100&original_decimal_odds=5&hedge_decimal_odds=1.5
```

## Limitations

You are placing fresh bets on all outcomes at the best available prices (use arbitrage-bet), or you want to hedge for a break-even instead of an equal profit. Mathematics only; not gambling advice. Equal-profit hedge for a two-outcome market: the hedge is sized so that both outcomes return the same total. In three-way markets the hedge price must cover every outcome other than the original selection (e.g. a lay or double-chance price). Probability mathematics only; not gambling advice. All values are computed from the formula above; no measurement or live data is involved.

## FAQ

**When does hedging lock in a profit?**

When 1/original_odds + 1/hedge_odds is below 1, i.e. the combined implied probability is under 100 %. That happens when the original price has shortened enough since the bet was placed.

**What if I only want to get my stake back?**

Stake original_stake / (hedge_decimal_odds − 1) on the other side instead; this calculator sizes the hedge for equal profit on both outcomes, not for break-even.

## Related

- [Arbitrage Betting Calculator](https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/arbitrage-bet.md) — Same arithmetic for fresh stakes across all outcomes of a market.
- [Odds Converter](https://tttkmbb.com/gaming/odds-converter.md) — Convert American or fractional prices to the decimal odds used here.
- [ROI Calculator](https://tttkmbb.com/finance/roi.md) — Return on the total amount staked.